Myanmar: Overcoming dissensus over consensus

The five-point consensus, an important peace initiative on Myanmar mandated by the ASEAN Leaders’ Meeting in Jakarta on April 24, is yet to be transformed into concrete actions. Until today, there is no clear ASEAN scenario on how to ensure the cessation of violence, facilitate constructive dialogue among all parties concerned, deploy an ASEAN special envoy, provide humanitarian assistance and visit Myanmar to meet with all parties.

Many have voiced their call for effective and timely implementation of the consensus, including Indonesia. Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi has expressed her concern over the lack of major progress in this. She also underlined the need for transparency in the course of implementing the consensus.

Moreover, there appears to be dissensus on how to operationalize the consensus in practical steps, namely a perception gap among ASEAN members on the particular details involved in implementing the consensus.

This adds more complexities in addition to the unfavorable attitude of the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) toward the consensus. The Tatmadaw set a precondition before giving effect to ASEAN’s good offices. In a departure from the original intention of ASEAN leaders, the Tatmadaw is of the view that the consensus’ implementation must complement the five-step roadmap it introduced immediately after the Feb. 1 coup, and that implementing the consensus will be considered only after stability has been restored in Myanmar in accordance with the roadmap.

Such divergent standpoints will certainly hamper ASEAN’s constructive role in facilitating a peaceful solution in the interest of the Myanmar people. ASEAN must instead show that it remains the driving force in addressing the Myanmar crisis. Failing to do so will risk diminishing the strategical relevance of ASEAN centrality. Therefore, ASEAN has no option but to meet these challenges by leaping out of its comfort zone and taking some immediate steps.

ASEAN needs to consider the following steps with a view to sustaining its regional and global relevance.

First, the regional grouping must reconsolidate its commitment to urge the Tatmadaw to implement the ASEAN Consensus on Myanmar. In this regard, ASEAN must act collectively with a strong sense of unity in order to ensure the success of its endeavor.

Effective and timely implementation of the consensus must not be subject to any conditions which would be repugnant to constructive dialogue among all concerned parties in Myanmar. ASEAN should not allow any attempt to link the consensus’ implementation with the Tatmadaw’s five-step road map. Doing otherwise would only prejudge any potential political settlement that may be achieved through such constructive dialogue.

Second, ASEAN must expedite the appointment and dispatch of the ASEAN special envoy. Further delaying the process will only undermine the grouping’s credibility.

Given the complexity of the crisis in Myanmar, the ASEAN special envoy may constitute a team, for instance, in the form of a triumvirate, of eminent persons from ASEAN countries. With their complementary skills and qualifications as well as national backgrounds, a team of envoys would be more acceptable to all concerned parties in Myanmar.

With a view to safeguarding their credibility, such an ASEAN envoy must work on the basis of robust terms of reference outlining the policy guidance of ASEAN foreign ministers. The policy guidance may include a set of directions or strategies on how the special envoy should fulfill its mandate.

The ASEAN envoy will only be able to discharge its mandate if the Tatmadaw gives its full political commitment to implementing the consensus. Constructive dialogue with all parties concerned will only bear fruit if there is genuine desire within Myanmar to come to the negotiation table. The Tatmadaw’s full consent is also expected to provide the special envoy’s visit with unconditional access.

The third step is thus imperative for that reason. All ASEAN countries, as one family, should use their respective spheres of influence to secure international support for ASEAN’s efforts in bringing about a peaceful solution in Myanmar.

The regional grouping should therefore avoid being further tarnished by dissensus over the ASEAN five-point consensus, which will only discredit the organization as slow-moving. In order to effectively deliver the mandate of the ASEAN Leaders’ Meeting, ASEAN needs to undertake these three immediate steps in an effective and timely manner.

How the regional grouping meets this challenge will shape the future of ASEAN centrality. The international community is now waiting for further action from ASEAN.